2014 MLB Draft Podcasts: Jim Callis
What This Means (Other Than I'm Insane)
If you think ranking 500 draft prospects is ridiculous, then I'm your guy. I ranked 291 and today I've released my worksheets of the rest of the top 10-15 round talents in college/junior college (255 more) and high school (203 more) for 749 total players. I only ranked less than half because rankings don't mean much past about 150 or so since the talent runs together, but the cutoff for the top 291 list was top 5-7 rounds, while the extras lists are prep prospects almost certainly going to college (with a chance to go in the top 5 rounds in 3 years) and the college prospects with some kind of hope to reach the majors.
The average draft board for an MLB team has 700-750 magnets total and the draft will end with under 100 players left on the board unselected. I've included some prep players on these lists that wouldn't get on many team's draft boards due to fringy talent and big bonus demands, but I'm ranking only on talent, while teams take signability into account as to whether to put lower-tier prep players on the board at all. The college players I didn't include are those that will go rounds 15-40, mostly signable minor league fillers from the junior college ranks or college seniors, rarely signing for over $50,000. I had to cut things off somewhere and this seemed reasonable until I realized how many players I ended up with at the end of the exercise.
How A Draft Board Works & How This Differs
Once you get to round 20 or so, teams are only pulling every other name called off their board; something like half the players drafted aren't on some teams boards, so that's how a board will only lose 100 players during a stretch when 500 were selected. There's a lot of room for interpretation when the team that's highest on a player doesn't isn't that confident he'll make it to AA. The 295 ranking has at least 50 high school players that will definitely go to school, maybe closer to 100 and when I combine all these lists into one master draft board, I'll point out which top 100-ranked prep players likely won't sign if drafted where I have them ranked. I'll only do the top 100 or so because basically any prep player rated after 200 is almost definitely going to school and I don't have the time or inclination to find out which ones will sign for low six figures because it isn't that many.
As for the notation here, I'm listing the player and state of their high school school, then the college commit. If you want to see which high school the player goes to, click on his name to see his profile, which includes links to any previous content like scouting reports and videos. After the name, I'll list any other positions, like if he's a positional tweener or a two-way guy, the notation means they are pro prospects at both positions. For outfielders, I reference which position they profile at, if they're a clear fit for one of the three spots. The lists are presented in order of my preference, so you can make your own list by taking my top 295 and plugging in some guys from the top of each positional list. Once you get a ways down, obviously the order doesn't matter much as the talent is similar and fringy at best.
At the top of each group, we're basically talking about 6th-8th round type prospects that could be targets for below-slot deals in the 4th-5th rounds. There will definitely be dozens of $1,000-$10,000 way-below-slot picks possibly as high as the 4th round and down to the 10th round to conserve pool space; I'm going to miss many if not all of those and it doesn't bother me. The idea here is to list everyone that will sign for over $100,000 and these lists should cover well over 75% of those guys. There are some players near the top of their groups here (or near the end of the top 295) that are draft-eligible sophomores or college juniors with high price tags that may not even be drafted for this reason alone. With there being only 40 rounds and some clubs having to fill three short-season rosters, there aren't as many picks spent on players that are unsignable for their talent level (as compared to past years with 50 rounds in the draft), be it from high school or college.
Example Report & Video
Here's a video of Miami-Dade JC commit and Coral Springs Christian HS righty Jeremiah Muhammad. This video is from the first time I saw him, when he was relieving my #15 overall prospect Touki Toussaint in a heavily-scouted game early in the year. Muhammad hadn't been seen much my scouts at this point, as he transferred to the Miami-area powerhouse from New Jersey and wasn't easy to find on the showcase circuit, either. Muhammad is old for the class at 19.56 on draft day, but is an athletic 6'5/215 righty with limited miles on his arm. This video is from arguably his best outing of the spring, where he went 2 innings to close out a win, sitting 89-92 and hitting 94 mph with an inconsistent curveball that flashed above average at times. Things tailed off a bit from here, as I saw Muhammad a few weeks later at the NHSI tournament in North Carolina and he was 86-89 mph and lacking feel. Muhammad should go in the top 10 rounds if he tells teams he's signable for low six figures. He fits in rounds 6-9 based on talent and the elements are here for a power arm that could take off.
Handsome Monica (1B)/LA/Arizona, Riley Adams/CA/San Diego, Thomas Rowan/CA/None, Blake Anderson (RHP)/MS/Southern Miss, Mike Papierski/IL/LSU, Justin Morris/MD/Maryland, Hunter Taylor/VA/South Carolina, Cole Bedford/TX/Texas A&M, Michael Rivera/FL/Florida, Nathan Rodriguez/CA/Arkansas, Mitch Trees/IL/Louisville, Tanner Gragg/KS/Kansas, Joey Morgan/OR/Oregon, Jared Barnes/FL/South Alabama, Gunnar Troutwine/KS/Wichita State, Gilberto Rodriguez/PR/Miami-Dade JC (FL), Griffin Helms/GA/Kennesaw State, Tommy Pincin (1B)/CA/San Diego State, Michael McCann/TX/Texas, Colton Shaver/UT/BYU, Justin Hancock/WA/Washington State, Colby Fitch/MO/Louisville, John Jones/FL/Miami, Nick Bottari (1B)/FL/Miami, Trey Turner (OF)/MO/Crowder JC (MO), Spencer Levine (OF)/FL/Florida International
First Basemen (11)
Gerard Hernandez (LF)/AZ/None, Hunter Williams/VA/North Carolina, Gavin LaValley/OK/Oklahoma, Jeremy Vasquez/FL/Florida, Justin Bellinger/MA/Duke, J.J. Matijevic/PA/Arizona, Jackson Soto (3B)/OR/Oregon State, Keegan McGovern/GA/Georgia, Caleb Eldridge/OK/Oklahoma State, Dash Winningham/FL/Florida Gulf Coast, Cole Krzmarzick/NV/Nevada
Second Basemen (11)
Tristan Rojas/NY/Grayson County JC (TX), Chandler Avant/AL/Alabama, Jack Benninghoff/KS/Arkansas, Bryson Brigman (SS)/CA/San Diego, Jack Gerstenmaier/VA/Virginia, Christian Donahue/HI/Oregon State, Nick Valaika/CA/UCLA, Brooks Kennedy/NC/North Carolina, Kevin Rivera/PR/Broward County JC (FL), Tristan Hildebrandt/CA/Fullerton, Kevin Merrell/FL/USF
Brian Schales/CA/Long Beach State, Henry Davis/SC/Appalachian State, D.J. King/FL/Hillsborough JC (FL), Dale Burdick/TN/Mississippi State, Matt McLaughlin/CA/Kansas, Payton Squier/AZ/UNLV, Evan Mendoza (RHP)/FL/N.C. State, Tremaine Holmes/FL/None, Jonathan Oquendo/PR/None, Kirvin Moesquit/FL/Miami, Brody Westmoreland/CO/San Diego State, Drew Ellis/IN/Louisville, Dazon Cole (RHP)/MI/Central Michigan, Zack Gahagan/NC/North Carolina, Allen Beer/OK/Bradley
Third Basemen (11)
Jon Ducoff/TX/Baylor, Jared Walker/GA/Kennesaw State, Joe Gillette/CA/Oregon State, Christian Hicks (SS)/FL/Florida, Taylor Lane/FL/Florida, Michael Gretler/WA/Oregon State, Dylan Busby/FL/None, Blake Wiggins/AR/Arkansas, Justin Lewis (RHP)/GA/Kentucky, Max Ponzurick/PA/Virginia Tech, McCarthy Tatum (RHP)/CA/San Diego
Khevin Brewer (LF)/TX/Rice, Darius Day (CF)/IL/Arizona, Stuart Fairchild (LF)/WA/Wake Forest, Corbin Martin (RHP)/TX/Texas A&M, Kevin Williams (CF)/FL/Kansas State, Garrett McCain (CF)/TX/Oklahoma State, Patrick Mathis (CF)/TX/Texas, Coltin Gerhart/CA/Arizona State (Football), Denz'l Chapman (CF)/CA/San Diego State, Francisco DeJesus (RF)/TX/TCU, Brodie Leftridge (CF)/MD/Tennessee, Elijah Dilday/MO/Nebraska, Clark Scolamiero/SC/South Carolina, Logan Sowers (RF)/IN/Indiana, Devan Stubblefield (CF)/HI/None, Laren Eustace (CF)/IL/Indiana, Matt Collins (CF)/TX/Texas A&M, Storm Edwards (CF)/NC/North Carolina State, Marcos Rios (CF)/PR/None, Aidan McDermott (LF)/NJ/St. John's, Jamal Howard/AL/Alabama, B.J. White (LF)/AL/Chipola JC (FL), Jared Janczak (CF)/TX/TCU, Hunter Tackett/TN/Auburn, Drew Wharton (LF)/GA/Clemson, Jared McKay (CF)/GA/None, Ben Polshuk (LF)/CA/Cal Poly, Nkosi Djehuti-Mes (LF)/CA/None, Tanner Gardner (CF)/TX/Texas Tech, Carson Jackson/FL/High Point, Brandon Gonzalez/CA/None, T.J. Riles (CF)/GA/Kennesaw State, Josh Davis (CF)/OK/Pepperdine, Brandon Vicens/FL/Florida Atlantic Joseph Estrada (RF)/PR/Alabama State, Brock Lundquist (CF)/CA/Long Beach State, Daniel Goss (CF)/TX/Hill, Jack Schaaf (CF)/OH/Florida International, Andrew Shaps (LHP)/AZ/Arizona State
Left-Handed Pitchers (22)
Brendan McKay/PA/Louisville, Sam Hentges (1B)/MN/Arkansas, Daniel Gooden/GA/Georgia Tech, Willie Rios (1B)/CT/Maryland, Brian Gonzalez (1B)/FL/Miami, Devin Smeltzer/NJ/Florida Gulf Coast, Taylor Lehman/PA/Penn State, Chris McGrath/GA/Duke, Brock Burke/CO/Oregon, Christian Martinek/OR/Oregon State, Quinn Brodey (CF)/CA/Stanford, Coan McAlpine/NC/Clemson, Zach Warren/NJ/Tulane, Keegan Baar/MI/Michigan State, Kyle Pate/AR/Arkansas, Tyler Bauman/FL/St. John's, Nick Raquet/PA/North Carolina, Ryan Fant/TX/Arkansas, Parker Mushinski/TX/Texas Tech, Jake Latz/IL/LSU, John Gavin/CA/Fullerton, Joel Ortiz/PR/None
Right-Handed Pitchers (68)
Gabe Llanes/CA/Fresno State, Griffin Canning/CA/UCLA, Pearson McMahan/FL/North Florida, Gage Burland (RF)/WA/Gonzaga, Tyler Schimpf/CA/Texas, Brendan Spagnuolo/NY/Vanderbilt, Marvin Gorgas (OF)/CT/Connecticut, Jordan Yamamoto/HI/Arizona, Zach Willeman/OH/Kent State, Erik Manoah/FL/Florida International, Jeremiah Muhammad/FL/Miami-Dade JC (FL), Mark Hammel/TX/Arkansas, Ryan Ralston/KS/Kansas, Nick Leonard/CO/Washington State, Keven Pimentel/FL/Miami, Parker Joe Robinson/CA/Texas, Devin Meyer/FL/Miami, Matt Ruppenthal/MI/Vanderbilt, John Wesley Ray/MS/Ole Miss, Kevin Steen/TN/Tennessee, Stetson Woods/CA/Fresno State, Brad Archer/MO/Missouri State, Spencer Moran/AZ/Utah, David Burkhalter/LA/Louisiana Monroe, Jake Niggemeyer/OH/Ohio State, Peter Solomon/MD/Notre Dame, Jesse McCord/AL/Mississippi State, Brigham Hill/TX/Texas A&M, Trevor Horn/AZ/Arizona State, Bryce Dyrda/CA/USC, Brady Feigl/MO/Ole Miss, Andrew DiPiazza/NJ/Alabama, Gage Hinsz/MT/Oregon State, Jean Cosme/PR/None
Right-Handed Pitchers (Cont'd)
Nate Hadley/CA/UCLA, Brandon Bielak/NJ/Notre Dame, Drew Carlton/FL/Florida State, Brandon Johnson/NV/Kansas, Drew Rasmussen/WA/Oregon State, Anthony Herron/MO/None, Ryan Hingst/TX/Arizona State, Cason Sherrod/TX/McLennan JC (TX), Matt Trask/CA/UCLA, Hunter Hart/IL/Indiana, Maverick Buffo/UT/BYU, Jake Bird/CA/UCLA, Giovanni Abreu/NY/Hofstra, Kameron Uter/GA/Wake Forest, Joe Ingle/NC/East Carolina, Josh Pennington/NJ/St. John's, Scott Schreiber/WI/Nebraska, Doug Norman/SC/LSU, Carson Larue/OK/Oklahoma State, Jayce Vancena/OH/Michigan, Matt Campbell/CA/Cal State Northridge, Jeff Bain/CA/California, Nick Brown/OK/Missouri State, Grant Schneider/TX/Arizona State, Zack Henderson/WI/Missouri, Michael Bono/CA/Santa Clara, Luke Sommerfeld/WI/St. Louis, Brock Barger/TX/Oklahoma, Garett King/CA/Nebraska, Trent Topliker/CA/UC Riverside, Ricardo Salinas/TX/Rice, Kade McClure/OH/Louisville, Evelino Ruibal (1B)/NJ/Notre Dame, Brad Wegman/CA/USC, Robert White/VA/William & Mary