MLB Mock Draft v3.0: Judgment Day

N.C. State lefty Carlos Rodon

Kiley takes his last stab at projecting the first round.

2014 MLB Draft Rankings: The Draft Board

2014 Mock Drafts: 1.0, 2.0 & 3.0

2014 MLB Draft Reports & Videos: Top 50 Tools Grid, 1-3 (Free), 4-6, 7-9, 10-12, 13-15, 16-18 (Free), 19-21, 22-24, 25-27, 28-30, 31-35, 36-40, 41-45 & 46-50

2014 MLB Draft Podcast: Jim Callis

2015/2016 MLB Draft Rankings (May 2014): 2015 College, 2016 College & 2015-16 High School


Pick
1
Houston Astros
Player: Brady Aiken
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 17.8
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Jeff Luhnow
Scouting Director: Mike Elias
Draft Slot Amount: 7922100

ANALYSIS: The Astros are still trying to get away from taking a HS arm, but the best prospect is the best prospect. Rodon's $6M+ demand likely eliminates him, with Alex Jackson the backup and Nick Gordon and Aaron Nola the extreme dark horses

Pick
2
Miami Marlins
Player: Carlos Rodon
Height: 6-0
Weight: 235
Age (Draft Day): 21.49
Current Team: North Carolina State
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Michael Hill
Scouting Director: Stan Meek
Draft Slot Amount: 6821800

ANALYSIS: The Kolek rumors are dying down and it sounds like meddling owner Jeff Loria's pick (Carlos Rodon, the Cuban-American lefty born in Miami) vs. the scouting staff's choice (Alex Jackson). The scouting staff wants Jackson but they know who signs their checks. Boras appears to know he's got the owner's guy and priced Rodon accordingly to get most of slot here, more than he'd likely get at the #1 pick.

Pick
3
Chicago White Sox
Player: Tyler Kolek
Height: 6-5
Weight: 270
Age (Draft Day): 18.47
Current Team: Shepherd HS (TX)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Rick Hahn
Scouting Director: Doug Laumann
Draft Slot Amount: 5721500

ANALYSIS: A couple scenarios could play out here. If Jackson goes 2, Rodon goes here. There's also still a chance Nola is the pick over Kolek, but sticking with Kolek sounds like the most likely scenario.

Pick
4
Chicago Cubs
LF
Player:
Height:
Weight:
Age (Draft Day): 21.26
Current Team: Oregon State
Position:
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison
Draft Slot Amount: 4621200

ANALYSIS: This pick shouldn't be affected by what happens above them as the Cubs aren't on Kolek and it's hard to see Aiken or Rodon geting here; Rodon's price tag may cause the Cubs to pass, but they would take Aiken. Kolek isn't in play here and Nola also seems to have become a secondary option behind the three college bats the Cubs have zoomed in on: Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber and Max Pentecost. Pentecost sounds like the third option and Conforto is slightly more likely than Schwarber.

Pick
5
Minnesota Twins
Player: Nick Gordon
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.61
Current Team: Olympia HS (FL)
Position: SS
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Terry Ryan
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
Draft Slot Amount: 3851000

ANALYSIS: Newcomb and Nola have been mentioned here and this would be where Kolek lands if Jackson and Rodon go 2-3, but this is Kolek's floor. Gordon was targeted a while ago and the Twins get their guy.

Pick
6
Seattle Mariners
Height: 6-1
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 18.44
Position: RF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Scouting Director: Tom McNamara
Draft Slot Amount: 3575900

ANALYSIS: It's looked for a few weeks like Jackson goes 1, 2, or 6 and the Mariners get their guy here. If 2-3-5 is Jackson-Rodon-Kolek, Gordon would be the pick. Sean Newcomb and Trea Turner are the dark horses for a team that is notoriously quiet and tends to pull more surprise picks than the average team. They'd also like a shot at local boy Conforto, but he's gone in this projection and they like Nola, but he's a little down the board for them.

Pick
7
Philadelphia Phillies
Player: Aaron Nola
Height: 6-1
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 21
Current Team: LSU
Position: SP
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Ruben Amaro
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever
Draft Slot Amount: 3300900

ANALYSIS: Dreams are coming true in this mock, as the Phils have coveted Nola for awhile and it was looking like he might not get here just a few weeks ago. Gordon is another guy they want, but it's hard to see him getting past 5 or 6. Jacob Gatewood is the extreme dark horse here, but he might make it to their next pick.

Pick
8
Colorado Rockies
Height: 6-0
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 21.25
Current Team: Indiana
Position: C
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Dan O'Dowd
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt
Draft Slot Amount: 3190800

ANALYSIS: Sounds like Colorado wants Nola first, then would take whichever of the college bats the Cubs don't take, with Schwarber/Conforto apparently a preference over Pentecost. Kyle Freeland was projected here for awhile and actually still may go here for a well-below-slot deal, but it came out this week that his medicals look pretty bleak and it looks like he'll slide into the 20-40 range. Brad Zimmer could also get some attention here.

Pick
9
Toronto Blue Jays
Player: Alex Jackson
Height: 6-1
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 20.93
Current Team: North Carolina State
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Scouting Director: Brian Parker
Draft Slot Amount: 3080800

ANALYSIS: The Jays have been tied most to Trea Turner, Touki Toussaint, Max Pentecost and Jeff Hoffman the most, but have been tied to what seems like another dozen players over the last few weeks. Turner is the pick here as he's a lock to go 10th if the Mets get a chance to take him.

Pick
10
New York Mets
Player: Tyler Beede
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.03
Current Team: Vanderbilt
Position: SP
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Sandy Alderson
Scouting Director: Tommy Tanous
Draft Slot Amount: 2970800

ANALYSIS: The Mets would love a shot at Conforto, Schwarber or Turner, with Turner believed to be their top preference. None of them get here in this scenario and two late rumors had the Mets on Tyler Beede and dark horse Forrest Wall for under slot. They've also been tied to Newcomb for the last few weeks. Sounds like it will be a college guy here.

Pick
11
Toronto Blue Jays
Height: 6-2
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 17.96
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Scouting Director: Brian Parker
Draft Slot Amount: 2888300

ANALYSIS: The Jays have been tied to Toussaint at this pick for months to the point that rivals teams thought the two sides had agreed to a bonus weeks ago. That said, Pentecost has late heat to this pick with the Jays brass rolling deep at his regional last weekend. Hoffman has been tied to Toronto since the day he hurt his elbow and makes tons of sense. This is one of the tougher picks to peg, though it seems like it has to be one of these three. There are late, unconfirmed rumors Toussaint raised his price tag, possibly in an attempt to float down lower in the round to a multi-pick team that could pay more than Toronto. These three guys likely go in the next three picks in some order.

Pick
12
Milwaukee Brewers
Player: Trea Turner
Height: 6-2
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 21.24
Current Team: Kennesaw State
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Doug Melvin
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid
Draft Slot Amount: 2805700

ANALYSIS: Here or 15 to the Angels would be the floor for Pentecost, with Tyler Beede and Kyle Freeland having some late heat at this pick. Newcomb, Hoffman and Brandon Finnegan all are also in play. Derek Hill, Kodi Medeiros and Michael Kopech are three of a half dozen high school guys that have been mentioned for a notoriously quiet team that's hard to read.

Pick
13
San Diego Padres
Player: Jeff Hoffman
Height: 6-4
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.41
Current Team: East Carolina
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Scouting Director: Billy Gasparino
Draft Slot Amount: 2723300

ANALYSIS: This is the last pick with any kind of consensus in the industry, with Turner, Toussaint, Pentecost and Hoffman the preferences and it looks like one of them will get here. Sounds like the Pads also like Conforto and Schwarber but they're long gone in this projection. Finnegan, Newcomb and Derek Hill have also been tied here but sound like backup plans.

Pick
14
San Francisco Giants
Player: Sean Newcomb
Height: 6-5
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 20.98
Current Team: Hartford
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Scouting Director: John Barr
Draft Slot Amount: 2613200

ANALYSIS: At this point the draft gets much more speculative, so I'll be briefer with my comments. The Giants are threats to take Hoffman or Toussaint if they slides. Derek Hill and power arms Newcomb, Finnegan, Grant Holmes, Luis Ortiz and Sean Reid-Foley are most likely.

Pick
15
Los Angeles Angels
Player: Brad Zimmer
Height: 6-5
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 21.52
Current Team: San Francisco
Position: RF
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Jerry Dipoto
Scouting Director: Ric Wilson
Draft Slot Amount: 2475600

ANALYSIS: This is the floor for Pentecost and has been mentioned as the floor for Beede and many college bats, including Brad Zimmer. Freeland could also be an option.

Pick
16
Arizona Diamondbacks
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.2
Current Team: Conway HS (SC)
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Kevin Towers
Scouting Director: Ray Montgomery
Draft Slot Amount: 2338200

ANALYSIS: Beede's floor is likely here and the Snakes would also like a shot at a college bat, though Blandino is the best one on the board in this projection. Monte Harrison, Derek Hill and Michael Chavis are prep bats tied to Arizona but Holmes is too good of a value here.

Pick
17
Kansas City Royals
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 21.28
Current Team: UNLV
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: Lonnie Goldberg
Draft Slot Amount: 2200600

ANALYSIS: Fedde will go somewhere from 17-34 and it's hard to say it with much certainty. Griffin and Wall have a outside shot here and Medeiros is a target here and 27.

Pick
18
Washington Nationals
Height: 6-11
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.14
Current Team: TCU
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Scouting Director: Kris Kline
Draft Slot Amount: 2145600

ANALYSIS: Nick Howard has some late heat here as does Fedde (a Boras client, whom the Nats work well with), but it sounds like the Nats are looking power arm and Finnegan fits the bill. Luis Ortiz and Sean Reid-Foley also possible along with Hoffman and Gatewood.

Pick
19
Cincinnati Reds
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 18.84
Current Team: Sandalwood HS (FL)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
Draft Slot Amount: 2090500

ANALYSIS: Reid-Foley has long been mentioned here and Medeiros would need to be taken here to grab him before KC's next pick as Cincy wold apparently like to do. Derek Hill also fits and the Reds hope Finnegan or Toussaint gets here.

Pick
20
Tampa Bay Rays
Player: Derek Hill
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.43
Current Team: Elk Grove HS (CA)
Position: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison
Draft Slot Amount: 2035500

ANALYSIS: The Rays are hoping someone drops, which leads to rumors all over the map but this is where Derek Hill lands in this projection after being in contention for near every pick since 12. They'd like one of the advanced college bats (Zimmer, Pentecost, etc.) but they're all long gone here, though Blandino could be a fit as could Reid-Foley, Monte Harrison, Braxton Davidson or Ti'Quan Forbes.

Pick
21
Cleveland Indians
Height: 6-11
Weight: 200
Age (Draft Day): 18.82
Current Team: Sprayberry HS (GA)
Position: 3B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Chris Antonetti
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
Draft Slot Amount: 2008100

ANALYSIS: The Indians have long been tied to Chavis, with some prep power arms also mentioned like Kopech, Ortiz, Adams and possibly Sheffield or Freeland.

Pick
22
Los Angeles Dodgers
Player: Erick Fedde
Height: 6-4
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.98
Current Team: First Academy HS (FL)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: L

General Manager: Ned Colletti
Scouting Director: Logan White
Draft Slot Amount: 1980500

ANALYSIS: The Dodgers are tied to Derek Hill, a pletora of prep arms like Spencer Adams, Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech, Luis Ortiz, Reid-Foley and Foster Griffin along with rising UVA closer Nick Howard

Pick
23
Detroit Tigers
Player: Nick Howard
Height:
Weight:
Age (Draft Day): 21.72
Current Team: Virginia
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dave Dombrowski
Scouting Director: David Chadd
Draft Slot Amount: 1953100

ANALYSIS: The Tigers are on Nick Burdi and Nick Howard and any power arm that drops here, with bat Gillaspie joining arms Ortiz and Kopech also in the mix based in this projection or Finnegan if he slides.

Pick
24
Pittsburgh Pirates
Player: Luis Ortiz
Height: 6-3
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 18.7
Current Team: Sanger HS (CA)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Neal Huntington
Scouting Director: Joe DelliCarri
Draft Slot Amount: 1925500

ANALYSIS: The Pirates are hoping someone falls to them and Forbes, Ortiz or Blandino are the best fits here. Freeland and Harrison also make sense and Kopech, Davidson and Gatewood have also been mentioned.

Pick
25
Oakland Athletics
Height: 6-5
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 17.78
Current Team: Columbia HS (MS)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Billy Beane
Scouting Director: Eric Kubota
Draft Slot Amount: 1898000

ANALYSIS: Oakland is most on Forbes but has been tied to a number of players like Monte Harrison, Alex Blandino, Matt Chapman, Derek Fisher, Luke Weaver, Chavis and Matt Imhof, probably in that order.

Pick
26
Boston Red Sox
Height: 6-4
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.06
Current Team: Evansville
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye
Draft Slot Amount: 1870500

ANALYSIS: The Red Sox are also waiting for someone to fall, are hoping for Fedde, but will take another college arm with some injury concerns rather than a current injury. Blandino, Fisher and Weaver are among those that have been mentioned.

Pick
27
St. Louis Cardinals
Height: 6-0
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 21.58
Current Team: Stanford
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Dan Kantrovitz
Draft Slot Amount: 1843000

ANALYSIS: The Cards like Blandino here and have been tied to a number of prep players that aren't here in the projection like Griffin, Ortiz, Kopech and Hill. Davidson, Flaherty, Monte Harrison and Forrest Wall are possible fits

Pick
28
Kansas City Royals
Height: 6-0
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 18.03
Current Team: Waiakea HS (HI)
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: Lonnie Goldberg
Draft Slot Amount: 1815500

ANALYSIS: KC likes Medeiros, Wall, Adams and Foster Griffin here, but Griffin likely doesn't get here. Joey Gatto, Gatewood, Gettys, Fisher and Adams have all been mentioned.

Pick
29
Cincinnati Reds
Height: 6-3
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.1
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
Draft Slot Amount: 1788000

ANALYSIS: Cincy likes power arms and apparently prefers Kopech to Fisher and Joey Gatto or other bats that are stuck at 1B like Gillaspie, Reed and Davidson.

Pick
30
Texas Rangers
Height: 6-2
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 18.62
Current Team: Gainesville HS (GA)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg
Draft Slot Amount: 1760500

ANALYSIS: The Rangers love tools and have been tied to Gettys for awhile, along with Forbes, who doesn't make it this far in the projection. Ortiz, Adams, Harrison, Wall, Marcus Wilson, Kopech, Fulenchek and Fisher also fit.

Pick
31
Cleveland Indians
Player: Derek Fisher
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 20.79
Current Team: Virginia
Position: CF
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Chris Antonetti
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
Draft Slot Amount: 1733000

ANALYSIS: Kopech, Adams, Gillaspie, Davidson, Joey Gatto, Justus Sheffield and Verdugo have all been mentioned along with Fisher's UVA teammate Mike Papi.

Pick
32
Atlanta Braves
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.54
Position: SS
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Frank Wren
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio
Draft Slot Amount: 1705400

ANALYSIS: The Braves have been tied to prep lefties and prep bats with most of them gone by this point but Wall, Sheffield, Verdugo and Davidson. Spencer Adams could also fit.

Pick
33
Boston Red Sox
Height: 6-4
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 21.1
Current Team: Wichita State
Position: 1B
Bats: B
Throws: L

General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye
Draft Slot Amount: 1678000

ANALYSIS: Boston molds scouting with stats as well as any team in the draft room and it's hard to ignore Gillaspie's numbers and raw power at this point in the draft, though the same could be said for A.J. Reed. Fisher or Davidson fits if he's here along with some prep bats like Marcus Wilson or Chase Vallot.

Pick
34
St. Louis Cardinals
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 18.14
Current Team: White County HS (GA)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Dan Kantrovitz
Draft Slot Amount: 1650400

ANALYSIS: The Cardinals love size, athleticism and arm speed in their pitchers and Adams is 6'4, has been up to 96 mph this spring and can dunk. Weaver is the other leading possibility here with Flaherty, Sheffield, Harrison, Davidson and Verdugo all possibly fitting, along with college teammates Mike Papi and Fisher or even Ronnie Williams as a below-slot option.


Here's the buzz for later picks from the last mock draft, which is all still accurate based on what I'm hearing late

Things To Keep In Mind For The Sandwich/2nd Rounds

Some of the players that could've been in this projection, but just got squeezed out, : Braxton Davidson, Luke Weaver, Monte Harrison, A.J. Reed, Mike Papi, Marcus Wilson, Chase Vallot, Josh Morgan, Jacob Gatewood, Alex Verdugo, , Scott Blewett and Jack Flaherty. Some players that should go in the 2nd round but fit more toward the middle or end of the round: Justus Sheffield, Ronnie Williams, Matt Imhof, Jacob Lindgren and Michael Cederoth, who may slip a long way if his signability ends up higher than anticipated.

From the rumor mill: Prep IF Tate Blackman will turn 20 soon after the draft, but the Royals are one of a couple teams on him early in the 2nd round, with some teams trying him out behind the plate in private workouts. Prep RHP Ronnie Williams was known to be a target of the Cardinals in the late 2nd round, but after a breakout Sebring showing, other clubs in front of the Red Birds like the Rays may now have him targeted higher in the round. Prep RHP Jack Flaherty is a target of the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals and Indians for an over-slot bonus in the sandwich or 2nd rounds. He could easily go as high as the Dodgers at 22 but the high asking price and multiple teams after the 1st round likely having bonus money saved up will likely push him down into the 30's or 40's.

Prep SS Milton Ramos has been getting a lot of attention down the stretch, with the Marlins bringing a half dozen scouts to Sebring to see him last week and the Phillies also rolling deep at the same event, allegedly also for Ramos; he shouldn't make it to the 50th pick. Canadian prep RF Gareth Morgan has long been a target of the Blue Jays and Phillies and they likely need to take him in the 2nd round to get him. Florida State RHP Luke Weaver is a target for Houston after the 1st round but may go in the late 1st to the Cardinals, Red Sox or A's, who were closely scouting his strong finish.

Lastly, if Jeff Hoffman (unlikely) or Erick Fedde (some chance) make it to the comp rounds, they are believed to be the primary targets for a number of large bonus pool teams. Both will likely raise their signability number if they sneak through the late first round, but most expect them to go in the top 34. Mississippi State lefty Jacob Lindgren and newly-healthy USC-Upstate righty Chad Sobotka are both rising; Lindgren shouldn't get out of the 2nd round and Sobotka won't last long in the 3rd round if he gets there.



Follow Kiley McDaniel on Twitter for more baseball news on the draft, the minor leagues, the big leagues and July 2nd.

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